Free trading math tool
Binary Options Profit & Win-Rate Calculator
Know the break-even win rate your payout requires, estimate how many trades a target may take, and see how stake size changes losing-streak exposure before you risk real money.
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Runs in your browser
No broker connection
Calculate your break-even, target and risk
Enter your own assumptions. Results update instantly and stay on this device.
Your results
Educational estimates based on your inputs.
Break-even 55.56%
Your target 65.00%
- Profit on one win
- $8.00
- Loss on one loss
- −$10.00
- Starting expected value / trade
- +$1.70
- Projected P/L after planned trades
- +$85.00
- Win rate required to hit target in planned trades
- 68.00%
- Minimum wins needed in planned trades
- 34 / 50
With an 80% payout, every $10 loss requires more than one $8 win to recover. Your win rate must stay above 55.56% just to break even under this simplified payout model.
Risk awareness
A win rate does not remove losing streaks
Even a strategy with positive mathematical expectancy can experience clusters of losses. This panel uses your expected win rate and planned trade horizon to illustrate that exposure.
Important: The streak probability assumes independent trades with a constant win probability. The critical-balance figure is a Monte Carlo illustration, not a prediction. Real market outcomes can cluster, payouts can change, entries can be delayed, and strategy performance can deteriorate.
Current-day session planner
See common market sessions in your timezone
Forex is an over-the-counter market, so these are commonly used session windows rather than a single centralized exchange schedule. Times automatically account for IANA timezone daylight-saving rules.
Your local time
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You can override the country default.
London × New York overlap
Calculating…
Often one of the highest-liquidity parts of the FX day. Higher activity can also mean faster adverse moves.
Session guidance is educational and does not use a live economic calendar, live volatility feed, broker payout feed or personal suitability assessment. Check major scheduled news separately before trading.
Answer-first guide
How binary options break-even math works
A losing trade normally loses the full stake while a winning trade earns only the stated payout percentage. That asymmetry means a 50% win rate is not enough when payout is below 100%.
Break-even win rate
1 ÷ (1 + payout decimal)
Example: 80% payout → 1 ÷ 1.80 = 55.56%
What does “expected value” mean?
For fixed staking, starting expected value per trade is:
EV = (win rate × stake × payout) − (loss rate × stake)
If EV is zero, you are mathematically at break-even under the simplified assumptions. If EV is negative, increasing the number of trades increases expected loss rather than fixing the payout disadvantage.
Quick break-even reference
| Payout | Break-even win rate |
|---|---|
| 60% | 62.50% |
| 70% | 58.82% |
| 75% | 57.14% |
| 80% | 55.56% |
| 85% | 54.05% |
| 90% | 52.63% |
| 95% | 51.28% |
These percentages are mathematical break-even points only. They do not include execution problems, changing payouts, fees, ties/refunds or strategy decay.
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Binary options calculator questions
What win rate do I need for an 80% payout?
You need a 55.56% mathematical break-even win rate. This comes from 1 ÷ (1 + 0.80). A real strategy generally needs to perform above break-even to absorb execution errors, changing payouts and other real-world effects.
What win rate do I need for a 70% payout?
The mathematical break-even rate is 58.82%. Lower payouts require higher win rates because each loss costs the full stake while each win returns only a fraction of the stake as profit.
How does the calculator estimate trades to my target?
For fixed staking it divides the target by expected profit per trade when expectancy is positive. For percentage staking it uses compounding based on the expected balance multiplier. These are estimates, not guarantees.
Why can a 60% win rate still lose money?
Because payout matters. At a 60% payout, break-even is 62.50%, so a 60% win rate has negative expectancy under the simplified payout model. At an 80% payout, 60% is above break-even.
What does the risk-of-ruin number mean?
It is an illustrative simulation of how often the account touches the critical-balance threshold you selected. It assumes a constant win probability and simplified payout behavior, so it should be treated as stress-testing—not a forecast.
What is the best market session for my strategy?
There is no universal best session. Breakout and momentum traders often focus on active session opens and the London–New York overlap, while mean-reversion traders may prefer conditions after the first impulse settles. The planner converts common session windows into your timezone; it does not confirm that a valid setup exists today.
Does this calculator connect to Pocket Option, Quotex or another broker?
No. It does not connect to a broker, place trades, read your account or fetch live payouts. You manually enter the payout shown by your broker.
Are binary options legal everywhere?
No. Rules vary by country and product. For example, the UK Financial Conduct Authority permanently prohibits firms from selling, marketing or distributing binary options to retail consumers. Check the rules that apply to you and only use appropriately authorized providers.
Risk & jurisdiction notice
Binary options are high-risk, all-or-nothing products. An unsuccessful trade can lose the full stake. This calculator is for education and mathematical planning only; it is not investment advice, a signal, a solicitation to trade, or a guarantee of profit.
Regulation differs by jurisdiction. The UK FCA states that the sale, marketing and distribution of binary options to retail consumers is prohibited. U.S. regulators also warn about fraud and unregistered internet-based binary options platforms. Verify the legal status and authorization of any provider before using it.